To Win Big or Have Your Parlay's Eliminated
BETTING WITH DRU
Intro: Welcome Betting world to Episode 5 of Betting with Dru. You can find all my content on the Start of an Era Channel via Apple podcasts or on spotify. The website for the show is Startofanera.com. Im your host here to deliver my weekly thoughts and opinions on sports bets for the upcoming weekend. On deck for today, College football Week 6 is officially here, and I give my opinion on the odds and spreads for these games with some analysis. I give my advice on parlays for Hockey games I trust this upcoming week. Also, NFL games bring the best entertainment every single week, so my week 5 picks are here as well.
College football last weekend had so many top 25 schools feel the upset & now this weekend the big rivalry games are here, and nothing is better than the joy of watching an unforeseen upset in college football except for Season 1 of Squid Game. Let’s begin with the matchups, odds and spreads for College football:
Alabama vs Texas A&M (+17.5)-106; 50.5
Lay the number and side with Alabama. Last week, Alabama sent the message to the rest of the college football world that they are on a different level than almost everyone else. The Crimson Tide are dominant on offense, averaging 6.7 yards per play, and showed that their defense can stand tall by significantly slowing down the Ole Miss offense. Texas A&M has struggled at times this year and there is zero margin for error when playing Alabama. Don’t expect the Aggies to produce enough offense to cover this number. Alabama ranks fifth in college football in scoring offense, averaging over 44 points per game, while Texas A&M ranks 101st, averaging just over 23 points per game.
Aggies quarterback Zach Calzada has struggled at times this season. The toughest defense Calzada has faced this season is Arkansas’s and he managed to throw for only 151 yards and threw an interception. Expect Alabama to cover this number comfortably. Alabama has won this game by at least 18 points in 6 of the last 7 matchups.
My picks: Alabama -17.5 (-114) O 50.5 (-115)
New Mexico vs San Diego State (-19.5) -112; 42.5
The New Mexico Lobos will head out west on Saturday for a late-night matchup with the undefeated San Diego State Aztecs. New Mexico is on a 3-game losing skid after their Week 5 loss to Air Force, and their offense has been absolutely brutal this season. The Lobos rank outside the top 100 FBS-wise in all major statistical categories offensively, but the most mind-blowing one is probably their points scored. After putting up just 10 points last week, they’re now averaging 16.8 per game and have scraped together a measly 23 in their previous 3 contests combined. San Diego State, on the other hand, has just about everything working for them. The Aztecs are a top 10 team nationally in rushing per game (251, 9th) and rushing yards allowed per game (46, 2nd), while also ranking top 25 in both points scored per game (36.8, 23rd) and total yards allowed per game (289.8, 18th). They have 3 different players with at least 24 rushing attempts, all averaging a minimum of 5.1 yards per carry.
This game should be a blowout. That doesn’t mean it will be, but it should be. Between looking at the numbers and then just acknowledging the outright talent gap, these teams aren’t really in the same realm. SDSU has covered in 3 straight games and is 5-1 ATS in its last 6, including 7-2 in the previous 9 at home. The Lobos don’t have a cover on their resume yet this season (0-5), and own a pedestrian 2-9 record ATS in their previous 11 games on the road. A -10 point differential per game is never good either. The Aztecs are the play, and they should cover with ease.
My picks: San Diego State -19.5 (-112) O 42.5 (-110)
Maryland vs Ohio State (-20.5) -110; 71.5
The Ohio State Buckeyes will try to build on their 52-13 win over Rutgers last time out. C.J. Stroud’s thrown for 1,293 yards, 13 touchdowns and 3 interceptions on 64.5% passing while TreVeyon Henderson has a team-high 510 rushing yards and Miyan Williams and Master Teague III each have 200+ rushing yards. Garrett Wilson leads Ohio State with 26 catches for 462 yards while Chris Olave and Jaxon Smith-Njigba each have 300+ receiving yards on the year. On defense, Ronnie Hickman leads Ohio State with 44 total tackles while Haskell Garrett has a team-high 3 sacks this season.
Maryland is 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games as an underdog and 7-20 ATS in their last 27 road games while the under is 4-0 in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Well, just when I thought Maryland had turned a corner and could hang with Iowa at home, the Terrapins put up a dud and Taulia Tagovailoa remembered how much he likes turning the ball over. The Demus injury was devastating in so many ways because Tagovailoa now has his first option taken away. The young quarterback looked completely lost after his injury. Ohio State hasn’t been as dominant as year’s past, but the Buckeyes are clearly the better team here and Maryland is dead to me from a betting perspective. It’s Ohio State or pass for me here.
MY PICKS: Ohio State -20.5 (-110) U 71.5 (-110)
Memphis vs Tulsa (-3.5) -104; 60.5
Memphis is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a road underdog and 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games overall while the under is 7-2 in their last 9 games overall Tulsa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games while the over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 games overall.
I get the fact that Memphis dropped a pair of games they maybe shouldn’t have, but I’m not sure why the Golden Hurricane’s favored here. Just because they’re at home? I’m not buying it. Sure, Tulsa’s played the tougher schedule, but Memphis is a good team and can hang points on the board which hasn’t been easy for the Golden Hurricane to keep up with. Give me Memphis and the points ina game the Tigers could win outright
MY PICKS: Memphis +3.5 (-118); U 60.5 (-106)
West Virginia vs Baylor (-2.5)-115; 44.5
College football action on Saturday afternoon and we will see a pair of teams from the Big 12 Conference square off as the West Virginia Mountaineers pay a visit to McLane Stadium in Waco, Texas to grapple with the Baylor Bears. The Mountaineers are coming off two three-point losses in a row to fall to 2-3 on the year while the Bears are off of their first loss of the season and come in at 4-1. The Bears have struggled to stop the run this year as they are 89tyh in that category, but it may not be a factor as West Virginia can't run the ball. The Mountaineers have a decent passing game, but the Bears are 12th in the nation against the pass and they allowed just 182 yards passing in the loss to Oklahoma State. This is a tough defense overall and they have allowed just 17.4 ppg on the year, which is 24th in the nation. The Bears enter this game off of their first loss of the season, but I expect them to get back on track here. The Baylor defense is real and the Mountaineers have struggled to move the ball with any consistency. You know your offense is in trouble when you score just 13 against Oklahoma and 20 against Texas Tech. Now WVU has to face a Baylor defense that has allowed just 17.4 ppg on the season. The West Virginia defense has been good this year but it is susceptible against the pass and that will be a problem once Baylor gets its ground game going. Lastly, the Mountaineers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games while the Bears are 16-3-2 ATS in their last 21 games following an ATS loss. Look for the Bears to stay perfect at home in this one.
MY PICKS: Baylor -2.5 (-115) O 44.5 (-110)
Oklahoma vs Texas (+3.5) -115; 63.5
Two of the best teams in the Big 12 will meet for a rivalry clash on Saturday afternoon when the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners take on the No. 21 Texas Longhorns at the Cotton Bowl in Dallas in the 117th edition of the Red River Showdown. Oklahoma enters at a perfect 5-0 (2-0 Big 12) on the season after holding on for a 37-31 win over the Kansas State Wildcats last weekend as a 12-point home favorite. Texas is also coming off a road win last Saturday by a 32-27 scoreline over the TCU Horned Frogs as a four-point favorite, and is now 4-1 (2-0 Big 12) for the season.
The Longhorns lead 62-49-3 all-time, but Oklahoma has won three straight meetings including a 53-45 quadruple overtime victory in last season's instant classic. After entering last week relatively healthy, Texas suffered a key injury as sixth-year guard Denzel Okafor was carted off against TCU and will undergo season-ending surgery. Senior cornerback Josh Thompson will return from a one-game absence due to a concussion, but the Texas secondary could still be without Jahdae Barron for undisclosed reasons. Highly-touted freshman wideout Troy Omeire will have to wait a while to make his Texas debut as he suffered a significant knee injury in camp.
The Sooners have left things way too close for comfort in their four FBS games despite not facing a particularly difficult schedule, and this is the matchup where that will finally come back to bite them. An earlier road loss to a very good Arkansas team no longer looks so bad for the Longhorns, and they have been undervalued ever since Thompson took over the starting job.
This is not the typical ultra-efficient Oklahoma offense we've seen under Lincoln Riley, as the Sooners have put up a mediocre 5.7 yards per play against FBS competition with Rattler's decision-making receiving a lot of criticism. Texas looks like the better offense already with Sarkisian just getting his system into place in year one, and Thompson has added a downfield passing element with 9.3 yards per attempt.
While Oklahoma's defense has shown a ton of progress from previous years, giving up 30 plus points to offenses like Kansas State and Tulane doesn't bode well for this weekend, and Robinson doesn't look like he can be stopped by anyone at this point. Texas is on a strong 6-1 run against the spread dating back to last year while Oklahoma is trending in the opposite direction, and the Sooners' good fortune in close games will run out here.
My picks: Texas +3.5 (-115) U 63.5 (-108)
Vanderbilt vs Florida (-38.5) -115; 60.5
The No. 20 Florida Gators will look to get back on track when they host the Vanderbilt Commodores on Saturday afternoon at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium. Vanderbilt enters at 2-3 overall (0-1 SEC) after a tight 30-28 victory over the Connecticut Huskies last Saturday, although it did not cover as a 14.5-point home favorite. Florida is coming off a disappointing showing in a 20-13 road loss to the Kentucky Wildcats last weekend as a 7.5-point favorite, and is now 3-2 (1-2 SEC) on the year.
This has historically been a one-sided matchup with Florida leading 42-10-2 all-time after winning seven in a row over Vanderbilt, including a 38-17 victory in Nashville last season. There have been a few positive signs for Vanderbilt early in Lea's tenure, but the Commodores just don't have the talent to compete in the SEC on either side of the ball, as evidenced by a 62-0 loss to the Georgia Bulldogs a couple weeks ago. Mullen will want Florida's offense to have its foot on the gas early as it tries to bounce back from last Saturday's ugly showing, while the Gators defense should easily shut down Vanderbilt en route to a cover.
Last Saturday wasn't pretty for Florida, but this is still an offense that ranks fourth in college football with seven yards per play for the season and is led by a coach in Mullen who tends to solve problems on that side of the ball very quickly. Beyond Florida just overwhelming Vanderbilt in the trenches and at the skill positions, this is a chance to get an extended look at Richardson, who could be an upgrade over Jones at quarterback as he has outstanding physical skills with a cannon for an arm and great speed at 6-4, 236 pounds.
Getting shredded by an awful Connecticut team doesn't bode well for Vanderbilt's defense, and the unit is right near the bottom of the national leaderboard with 6.8 yards per play allowed. Florida will have enough urgency to build a huge lead in the first half, and the Commodores will be too overwhelmed on both sides of the ball to cover even a big spread.
My picks: Florida -38.5 (-115) U 60.5 (-112)
Temple vs Cincinnati (-29.5) -112; 53.5
The Temple Owls and Cincinnati Bearcats meet Friday in AAC week 6 college football action at Nippert Stadium. The Temple Owls look for a statement win after winning three of their last four games. The Cincinnati Bearcats haven’t lost a regular season game since December of 2019.
The Owls are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 conference games and 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games overall. The Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 home games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The over is 6-1-1 in Owls last 8 games in October. The under is 12-5 in Bearcats last 17 home games. The Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
The Cincinnati Bearcats are as good as advertised and are going to start getting that sort of respect from oddsmakers. However, this is a bet of a letdown spot for the Bearcats after beating Notre Dame on the road. Cincinnati also isn’t a team we find often in these massive favorite roles, and they’re 2-6 against the spread when favored by 28 or more points since 2014. Also, Temple has scored a bunch of points this season and their defense is fourth in the country against the pass. Lots of points on a quick turnaround. Give me Temple.
My picks: Temple +29.5 (-108); O 53.5 (-114)
Arkansas vs Ole Miss (-5.5) -112; 66.5
Following a blowout loss in Tuscaloosa, Ole Miss returns home to host Arkansas. Like the Rebels, the Razorbacks are coming off a blowout loss. Arkansas was shut out by Georgia. Ole Miss is a 5-point favorite and there is good reason to back the Rebels and lay the points.
Both Arkansas and Ole Miss have capable offenses that have shown the ability to move the ball efficiently and effectively. The Razorbacks thrive when they successfully run the ball while the Rebels are at their best when the ball is in quarterback Matt Corral’s hands. Backing Ole Miss is easy in this spot is when you consider how Corral has performed at home. Last season, only 3 of Corral’s 14 interceptions came at home. But 6 of those interceptions came against Arkansas.
Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman knows that his defense will see a much different Corral this year. It was, by far, Corral’s worst game last season, and it stuck with him. This summer at SEC media days he said that “it’s going to be much different” when the Rebels play Arkansas this season. Given how Ole Miss has looked offensively, aside from the Alabama game, lay the points and side with the better quarterback at home. While you should expect this to be a great opportunity for Corral and the Ole Miss offense to get back on track, you should also expect this game to go under the game total of 67. Arkansas’s offense is at its best when the Razorbacks can run the ball. Expect them to look to establish the run and extend drives to keep Corral off the field. Time of possession will be a key stat for the Razorbacks this week. Against Georgia, when Arkansas struggled to produce offensively, the Razorbacks possessed the ball for only 23 minutes and 28 seconds, well under the 31 minutes they recorded in wins against Texas and Texas A&M earlier this season.
Aside from time of possession, Arkansas has a good defense that is led by veterans. While you should expect Corral and Ole Miss to put up points, don’t expect them to be scoring as easily as they have shown the ability to do at times this season.
My picks: Ole Miss -5.5 (-112); U 66.5 (-110)
Georgia vs Auburn (+15.5) -110; 47.5
The Auburn Tigers are 15.5-point underdogs at home on Saturday when they host Georgia.
Georgia is one of the most complete teams in college football, but is this too many points to lay considering it isn’t clear who will be playing quarterback for the Bulldogs? That is one question you should consider asking yourself. The other question is: Will that matter? Georgia’s backup quarterback Stetson Bennett stepped in last week against Arkansas and the Bulldogs relied heavily on the run game. Bennett is a capable quarterback, the facts are he just didn’t have to do a lot against the Razorbacks. If he has to step in against Auburn, he will more than likely have to attempt more than 11 passes. Auburn has the 8th-ranked run defense in college football, so it won’t be as easy for Georgia to move the ball on the ground as it has been so far this season.
This is going to be a defensive battle, but Georgia should be able to do enough offensively to cover. Auburn’s offense is going to struggle against Georgia’s defense. The Bulldogs have only given up one offensive touchdown this season. Bo Nix hasn’t been great and his best plays this season have been ones he has created with his legs and he won’t be able to do that on Georgia’s defense. Lay the points with Georgia.
Georgia’s defense has only allowed one offensive touchdown this season, so it is hard to expect Auburn to score many points against a unit that has proven to be in an elite class. Bo Nix and the Tigers’ offense has been inconsistent at best this season and it will be an uphill battle to get going against the best defense in college football.
On the other side, it’s tough to know what Georgia will try to do offensively because it’s not clear who will be playing quarterback. If JT Daniels is healthy, there could be opportunities for the Bulldogs to attack Auburn’s defense through the pass, but if he is unable to go Georgia will likely lean heavily on the run game like they did last week against Arkansas. Auburn’s offense hasn’t done anything to make anyone believe that they will be able to have success against Georgia’s defense, but on the other side Georgia probably won’t be able to dominate offensively the way they have at times this season. Expect this to be a low scoring game and stay under the total.
My Picks: Georgia -15.5 (-110) & U 47.5 (-110)
My favorite parlays for the upcoming week of the NHL.
Upcoming Week PARLAYS for NHL
· Tues: TB Lightning & LV Golden Knights
· Wed: Col Avalanche, WAS Capitals, VAN Canucks, ANA Ducks & TOR Maple Leafs
· Thu: TB, LV, FLA, TOR, DAL & PITT
And for the main event on today’s article, we have my favorite picks for Sunday’s NFL matchups.
Miami Dolphins vs TB Buccaneers (-10) -105; 44.5
It wasn’t how they drew it up, but Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers picked up a win over the New England Patriots last week on Sunday Night Football. They escaped with a narrow 19-17 victory, and should have a much easier time against the Miami Dolphins. The Pats’ offense isn’t exactly dynamic, but it’s a whole lot better than the Dolphins’ right now. Miami’s passing game is truly anemic, and Jacoby Brissett simply isn’t an NFL starter. Most importantly, the Dolphins have an awful offensive line. Brissett will be running for his life from the Bucs’ talented defensive front. Brady’s stats from last week don’t look great, but remember he was throwing in the heavy rain in a game in which he understandably had a lot of nerves.
His numbers also could have been a whole lot better, if not for a couple of drops by Antonio Brown. Miami has lost 3 straight games, most recently falling to a Colts team that had been 0-3. They lost to Indianapolis by double digits, so it’s hard to see how they would be able to keep this one within a score. Miami’s defense got overhyped after last year, and they’ve now given up at least 27 points in 3 consecutive weeks. Bet on a double- digit Bucs win and take Tampa on the spread.
My picks: TB Buccaneers -10 (-105) & U 48.5 (-115)
New England Patriots vs Houston Texans (+8.5) -110; 39.5
AFC action here as the Houston Texans host the New England Patriots. The Texans are coming off a truly ugly 40-0 loss at the hands of the Bills, while the Pats showed pretty well in a primetime loss to the Buccaneers, with Mac Jones earning plenty of new fans in the process. ‘Buy low, sell high’ often is a winning formula in NFL betting, and it applies here. Houston’s market perception is at an all-time low, but to be fair very few teams are going to go into Buffalo and hang with the Bills right now. Rookie quarterback Davis Mills should play much better back at home. New England was lucky to play Tampa Bay as closely as they did, and the game only went down to the wire because of some uncharacteristic inaccuracy from Tom Brady.
Everything went about as well as it possibly could have for the Pats in that game, and they still didn’t win.Their offense is one of the least-explosive in the league, so it’s hard to see how anyone could lay multiple scores with them on the road right now. The Patriots also traded away Stephon Gilmore on Wednesday, showing that they aren’t all-in on winning in 2021. Everybody got up for the huge game against the Bucs, which must have been emotionally exhausting, and now this is a prime letdown spot.
My picks: New England Patriots -8.5 (-110) & U 39.5 (-105)
Tennessee Titans vs Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5) -108; 48.5
Urban Meyer always meant to make headlines when he took over at Jacksonville this season, but probably not the ones he’s been getting this week. The Jaguars coach has upset just about everyone with his off-field behavior after his team’s loss in Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football of Week 4, and he really hasn’t done enough on the field so far to earn any credit with the team’s ownership. There were signs of life from the Jags in that game, which they led 14-0 at half-time, but the Bengals came out on top, as had Houston (otherwise winless), Denver and Arizona in their first 3 games. Meyer also lost one of his best offensive players. wide receiver DJ Chark, to injury in that game and this week’s distractions can’t help — the team had no meetings (about the game, at least) on Monday and Meyer has seemingly spent more time apologizing than game-planning for a crucial divisional game against the Titans.
Tennessee have shown they might not be the team that many people thought in preseason and they look a potential fade target when they meet under-the-radar or generally strong teams, but not against this team at this price. The Titans lead the impoverished AFC South with a 2-2 record after solid wins over the Colts and Seahawks, a loss to the Cardinals that no longer looks quite as bad as it did after Week 1, and Sunday’s easily avoidable (but not avoided) loss to the previously winless Jets. That overtime defeat in New York means we can take the Titans giving up a point or two less than might have been the case. Clearly, their chances will be improved if one or both of their injured wideouts — Julio Jones and AJ Brown — is able to return this week, but at least the backups have had more practice reps with QB Ryan Tannehill this week and Derrick Henry should be running hard again after recording 157 rushing yards against a Jets defense that is far stronger than Jacksonville’s. Take the Titans.
My picks: Tennessee Titans -4.5 (-112) & O 48.5 (-114)
Chicago Bears vs Las Vegas Raiders (-5.5) -108; 44.5
The Chicago Bears will hope the cure for their offensive issues was the Week 4 win over the Detroit Lions as they get set for a weekend in Vegas. Seven days on from their worst offensive performance in 40 years against Cleveland, the Bears looked much improved as they downed the Lions 24-14 to move to 2-2 on the year. The offense was notably better with offensive coordinator Bill Lazor calling the plays, rather than head coach Matt Nagy. Justin Fields put his awful showing against the Browns behind him, throwing for 209 yards and completing 11 of 17 passes as Chicago played more to his strengths. Fields was finally able to unlock Darnell Mooney, who enjoyed a career day, and if he can get Allen Robinson involved then this Bears team would suddenly look very different. There was also a big dose of David Montgomery against the Lions and his loss to a knee injury is a blow, although backup Damien Williams has shown he can perform on the big stage.
The offense is still a work in progress, but it should give the Raiders problems. Las Vegas’ defense allowed the understrength Miami Dolphins to score 28 points and gain 330 yards on their last outing at home, while they had no answer for Justin Herbert and the Chargers on Monday night. The loss to the Bolts ended the Raiders’ unbeaten start to the season and exposed some worrying flaws, with their offensive line failing to protect Derek Carr or create lanes in the running game. Jon Gruden says he’s not concerned about the O-line but with his quarterback having already been sacked 12 times this season and former Raider Khalil Mack coming to town this week looking to prove a point, it is a good thing Gruden will be wearing black on the sidelines to hide those stress sweat marks. Vegas are trending in the wrong direction after their fast start, the defense has slipped to 15th in DVOA, while the offense is grading out 22nd, only 6 places better off than a Chicago offense that tanked at Cleveland. If the Bears can dominate in the trenches and come up with another good gameplan for Fields, then backing Chicago to cover should be the play.
My picks: Chicago Bears +5.5 (-112) &U 44.5 (-112)
San Francisco 49ers vs Arizona Cardinals (-4.5) -106; 50
The Arizona Cardinals are the last undefeated team remaining in the NFL and they will try to stay that way when they host the NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers in Week 5. Arizona’s perfect record is bookended by especially impressive results, starting with a 38-13 beatdown of Tennessee and, most recently, a 37-20 victory over the previously undefeated Rams. The Week 4 game wasn’t even as competitive as the score suggests as the Cardinals led 37-13 before surrendering a meaningless touchdown with 1:14 remaining. Kyler Murray has established himself as the MVP favorite (+450) with 1,273 passing yards and 13 total touchdowns.
It goes without saying that the 49ers’ quarterback situation is less stable. Jimmy Garoppolo is questionable with a calf contusion and even when he is 100% there are calls for rookie Trey Lance to be the starter. San Francisco has lost two in a row at the hands of Green Bay and Seattle following wins over Detroit and Philadelphia. Things are going south in the Bay Area, and it’s hard to see them turning it around against arguably the best team in the league. San Francisco is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 overall and 2-5 ATS in its last 7 following a loss. The Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 October contests and 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings between the teams. Go with Arizona.
My picks: Arizona Cardinals -4.5 (-106) & O 50 (-112)
The remaining picks for Sunday:
· NY Jets -3 (-120)
· Den Broncos +1.5 (-118)
· Min Vikings -9.5 (-112)
· GB Packers -3 (-110)
· CAR Panthers -3 (-110)
· New Orleans Saints -2.5 (-110)
· Cleveland Browns +2 (-110)
· Dallas Cowboys -7 (-106)
· Bill/Chiefs O 56.5 (-110)
· BAL Ravens -7 (-106)
I would like to thank all the readers for joining me today, if you have any questions or any betting topics you want me to discuss just submit them on the website; start of an era.com Next episode I will be going over my NFL week 6 picks, college football week 7 picks, NHL parlays and the upcoming basketball season. So, readers please rate/review the article and I’ll be back soon to bless your eyes again.